Report Summary

Period covered 29 September – 26 October 2024

3 minute read

Note: This report summary is one or two months behind the current month as standard reporting practice. The content is indicative only and incomplete with certain data undisclosed. Become a member to access this data or take out a free 30 day membership trial now.

Retail sales

• Retail sales rose by just xx% YoY in October as consumer confidence weakened.
• Factors impacting the headline performance in the month include: Budget uncertainty; energy inflation; a later half term; and mild weather as well as storms.

Warm weather dampens seasonal sales

• Clothing (-xx% YoY) and Footwear (-xx%) struggled as unseasonably warm temperatures delayed winter wardrobe purchases.
• Storm Ashley on 20 October brought heavy rain and winds of up to 80 mph (Met Office), impacting footfall, which declined by xx% YoY (MRI Software).
• Online sales (+xx%) grew as consumers sofa surfed amid stormy weather, but remained below usual October levels, reflecting anticipation for Black Friday.
• Health & Beauty (+xx%) remained a standout, supported by advent calendars.
• Food (+xx%) sales were driven by Halloween treats, but price-conscious consumers focused on promotions, with 36% of branded sales on offer.

Budget blamed for softening sales

• Speculation around the October Budget dampened spending. GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to -xx in October, its lowest since March, with the major purchases index at -xx and the savings index rising to +27.
• Inflation rose to xx% YoY in October, driven by a £xx annual increase in energy bills as Ofgem raised the price cap.

Focus on retail essentials and experiences

• Entertainment spending surged xx% YoY (Barclays), supported by Coldplay ticket sales and hit TV shows like Rivals. In contrast, big-ticket purchases were deferred, with shoppers awaiting a potential November interest rate cut.

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Consumer confidence lift post-Budget